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Earthquake Prediction: The Scientific Challenge

Organized by Leon Knopoff

February, 10-11, 1995
Irvine, CA

February 10

Session One - Seismicity Observations
James R. Rice, Chair
Leon Knopoff, Introduction

Scale Dependence in Earthquake Phenomena
Keiiti Aki, University of Southern California

Initiation Process of Earthquakes and the Implications for Seismic Hazard Reduction Strategy
Hiroo Kanamori, CalTech

Intermediate and Long-Term Seismic Precursors to Large Earthquakes
Lynn Sykes, Columbia University

Instability of the Lithoshere and Earthquake Prediction: modeling, phenomenology, unsolved problems
Vladimir Keilis-Borok, Moscow

Session Two - Other Observation
Lynn R. Sykes, Chair

Paleoseismic Observations on the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Coseismic Slip Through Several Earthquake Cycles
Kerry Sieh, CalTech

Earthquake Prediction: The View from the Trenches
David Schwartz, USGS Menlo Park

Geodetic Evidence for Earthquake Precursors and Long-Term Seismic Hazard
David Jackson, University of California, Los Angeles

What Electrical Measurements Can Tell About Changes in the Fault System
Ted Madden, MIT

Seismicity Rates and Seismicity Precursors: Apples and Oranges
Lucile Jones, USGS Pasadena

February 11

Session Three - Laboratory Investigations
Clarence Allen, Chair

Geochemical Challenges to Earthquake Prediction
Hiroshi Wakita, Tokyo University

Implications of Fault Constitutive Law for Deterministic and Probabilistic Earthquake Prediction
James Dieterich, USGS Menlo Park

Laboratory Studies, Numerical Fault Models and Earthquake prediction
Terry Tullis, Brown University

Non-uniformity of Rupture Growth Resistance and Nucleation to Dynamic Propagation of Shear Rupture: A Physical Model for Earthquake Generation Processes
Mitiyasu Ohnaka, Tokyo University

Session Four - Theory and Modeling
Keiiti Aki, Chair

Problems in Earthquake Source Mechanics: Understanding Stress Levels, Rupture Modes and Seismic Complexity in Consistency with Lab and Geologic Constraints
James Rice, Harvard University

Dynamic Friction and the Origin of the Complexity of Earthquake Sources
Raul Madariaga, Paris

Slip Complexity in Dynamic Models of Earthquake Faults
James R. Langer, University of California, Santa Barbara

The Cessation of Sliding and its Influence on the Spatio-Temporal Complexity of Earthquakes
Leon Knopoff, University of California, Los Angeles

Earthquake Prediction: The more we learn....
Frank Press, Carnegie Institute of Washington

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