Earthquake Prediction: The Scientific Challenge
Organized by Leon Knopoff
February, 10-11, 1995
Irvine, CA
February 10
Session One - Seismicity Observations
James R. Rice, Chair
Leon Knopoff, Introduction
Scale Dependence in Earthquake Phenomena
Keiiti Aki, University of Southern California
Initiation Process of Earthquakes and the Implications for Seismic Hazard Reduction Strategy
Hiroo Kanamori, CalTech
Intermediate and Long-Term Seismic Precursors to Large Earthquakes
Lynn Sykes, Columbia University
Instability of the Lithoshere and Earthquake Prediction: modeling, phenomenology, unsolved problems
Vladimir Keilis-Borok, Moscow
Session Two - Other Observation
Lynn R. Sykes, Chair
Paleoseismic Observations on the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Coseismic Slip Through Several Earthquake Cycles
Kerry Sieh, CalTech
Earthquake Prediction: The View from the Trenches
David Schwartz, USGS Menlo Park
Geodetic Evidence for Earthquake Precursors and Long-Term Seismic Hazard
David Jackson, University of California, Los Angeles
What Electrical Measurements Can Tell About Changes in the Fault System
Ted Madden, MIT
Seismicity Rates and Seismicity Precursors: Apples and Oranges
Lucile Jones, USGS Pasadena
February 11
Session Three - Laboratory Investigations
Clarence Allen, Chair
Geochemical Challenges to Earthquake Prediction
Hiroshi Wakita, Tokyo University
Implications of Fault Constitutive Law for Deterministic and Probabilistic Earthquake Prediction
James Dieterich, USGS Menlo Park
Laboratory Studies, Numerical Fault Models and Earthquake prediction
Terry Tullis, Brown University
Non-uniformity of Rupture Growth Resistance and Nucleation to Dynamic Propagation of Shear Rupture: A Physical Model for Earthquake Generation Processes
Mitiyasu Ohnaka, Tokyo University
Session Four - Theory and Modeling
Keiiti Aki, Chair
Problems in Earthquake Source Mechanics: Understanding Stress Levels, Rupture Modes and Seismic Complexity in Consistency with Lab and Geologic Constraints
James Rice, Harvard University
Dynamic Friction and the Origin of the Complexity of Earthquake Sources
Raul Madariaga, Paris
Slip Complexity in Dynamic Models of Earthquake Faults
James R. Langer, University of California, Santa Barbara
The Cessation of Sliding and its Influence on the Spatio-Temporal Complexity of Earthquakes
Leon Knopoff, University of California, Los Angeles
Earthquake Prediction: The more we learn....
Frank Press, Carnegie Institute of Washington
