Adrian E. Raftery

I am a statistician who develops new statistical methods for the social, environmental and health sciences. I have produced methods for taking account of uncertainty about the structure of a statistical model using Bayesian model averaging. Another interest is in methods for finding groups of objects in data using model-based clustering. I have also developed ways of doing statistical inference from deterministic computer models, including a method called Bayesian melding. This has been the basis for new ways of assessing trends in the population of bowhead whales, for urban planning using land use and transportation models, and for UNAIDS's official methods for estimating and projecting HIV/AIDS prevalence worldwide. More recently I have developed new methods for probabilistic weather forecasting, and for probabilistic projections of human populations.